I wonder if Gavin Newsom fully thought through the implications of the reparations task force he approved in 2020. He probably figured it was the right thing to do at the time; knowing it wouldn’t come to fruition for years, he kicked the can down the road, crossed his fingers, and dealt with more immediate concerns.
Now three years have passed, and Newsom is facing the greatest test of his political career. Polls show a supermajority of Americans opposed to reparations, especially in the form of direct cash payments to Black people. Newson has got to perceive the threat to his political ambitions posed by reparations.
Gavin Newsom is less progressive than is generally thought. Compared to the general tenor of California Democrats in the Legislature, he’s a moderate-centrist. We all know he has his eye on the White House and has for years. His political ascent has been rapid and stunning, but it’s now hit a speed bump. With Biden running for a second term, Newsom has no choice but to wait until 2028, when he’ll be 61 years old. That’s not exactly old, but he won’t be a spring chicken either. Still, at this point, he has to be considered a leading candidate. Kamala Harris is widely perceived as unelectable; who else is there?
Newsom has four-plus years to lay the groundwork for the 2028 primaries. Part of that is simply getting Americans to know who he is. And he’s done a great job of that. He’s one of the most famous Governors in the U.S. He’s photogenic and smart and good on his feet. He’s already got plenty of support from liberals for his historic decision to marry gay people back in 2004. But Newsom would need the heavy support of Black voters in both the primaries and the general election—and that’s where reparations comes in.
Black people want reparations, strongly. And they want them in every conceivable form, including large cash payments. Blacks haven’t been Newsom’s strongest constituency; he hasn’t particularly needed them in California, where Blacks make up only 6.5% of the population. But if he runs for president, Newsom is going to have to win in states like South Carolina, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Georgia, where Black voters comprise a higher percentage of the population.
Given voter attitudes towards reparations, this is Newsom’s, and Democrats’, challenge. If Newson signs a bill giving cash payments to Black people in California, he’ll solidify his Black votes, but will seriously alienate Whites (and Asians). If Newsom vetoes cash payments, he’ll alienate Black voters. That puts him in the toughest position a politician can be in: caught between two competing constituencies, both of which he needs.
I strongly suspect Newsom will not accept a bill that includes cash payments. That leaves other forms of “law and policy reforms,” as the reparations task force calls them. The Legislature now has its hands full trying to figure out precisely what to recommend, but whatever they do, people are watching. This is the key to Newsom’s dilemma: if voters perceive he’s giving away the store to Black people, they’ll revolt against him, and his political future will be jeopardized. He’s going to have to balance the expectations of Black and super-progressive voters against the inclinations of White and Asian voters (and some Latinos)—to split the difference, as it were.
Newsom is a smart, wonky guy, with an amazing political antenna. In this case, he’s going to have to be the Einstein of wonks to figure out exactly where the sweet spot is that will allow his political future to remain viable. It won’t be easy. If anyone can do it, it’s Gavin Newsom. But cash payments? Off the table.
Steve Heimoff