So what happens if Thao resigns before Nov. 5, Election Day? She’s repeatedly said she won’t, but Biden said the same thing, and look what happened.
The answer is contained in the Oakland City Charter. It makes for heavy reading, but here are the pertinent points, as near as I can tell.
“The office of Mayor shall be declared vacant by the Council when the person…dies, resigns, ceases to be a resident of the City or is absent continuously from the City for a period of more than thirty days without permission from the Council, is convicted of a felony,” etc. etc.
The rules remain the same whether Thao voluntarily resigns, or is tossed out of office on Nov. 5 in the Recall. (Of course, if she’s convicted of a felony, she’d also have to step aside.) Either way, the President of the City Council, Nikki Bas, would become temporary mayor, until a special election could be held, which must be within 120 days of when Thao leaves office.
However, Bas is running for Alameda County Supervisor. If she becomes temporary mayor and then wins and accepts her new supervisor job, the City Council would appoint another member as mayor until that special election.
I mentioned that the special election to replace Thao would have to be held within 120 after she resigns (if she does). Since we don’t know when Thao will resign (if she does), we can’t determine the date of 120 days thence. (This is getting complicated, isn’t it?) What if, say, Thao waited until the day before Election Day (Nov. 4) to resign? Then the City Council would have 120 days (until roughly mid-March) from Nov. 4 to appoint her successor. Obviously, in that case, on Election Day, there would be no candidate running for mayor, since no one would have had the time to get organized. We’d be stuck with whomever the City Council appointed for at least three months.
But wait! The Charter also says “When the City Council president (i.e. Bas) becomes mayor, they shall serve for the remainder of the unexpired term (which in Thao’s case is Jan. 2027) if such term is less than one year.” But in this case, the term is more than one year. What would happen if Bas decided she liked being mayor and wanted to remain for the duration of Thao’s term?
Bas may decide she’s not interested in being a temporary mayor, if she thought it would only be until mid-March, especially if it means giving up being a supervisor if she wins, as seems likely. But if she knew she could be mayor until Jan. 27, 2026, she might decide to take the job (even if she wins her supervisor race). Bas has always been a rather vicious, power-hungry politician. Why be a newbie on the Board of Supervisors when you can run Oakland for two years, with all the perks that come with the job? Let’s consider two hypotheses. One, Bas decides not to be mayor after the special election is held (whenever that would be). In that case, Bas would notify the Council in writing she doesn’t wish to be mayor, and the Council would then, by a majority vote, choose her replacement. The process then repeats itself: the Council would have to call a special election within 120 days (with the possibility of a 90-day extension “for the express purpose of consolidating the special election with the next Municipal Election or Statewide Election.)” And by the way, the Special Election would be by ranked choice, since that’s how Thao got elected.
The second hypothesis is that Bas decides to remain as Mayor until Jan. 2027, that is, for the remainder of Thao’s term. To be honest, I can’t see that happening. I think there would be an outcry from the voters and the media that the new mayor of Oakland had not been elected fair and square by a vote of the people, but rather anointed in a secret backroom deal by City Council politicians.
Of course, there’s the possibility that Thao could resign soon enough for a field of candidates to emerge and run on Nov. 5, but every day she remains in office makes that more unlikely, given the difficulties of fundraising, campaign organizing and the like. As we’re seeing with Kamala Harris, it could be done if Thao resigned in, say, the next two or three weeks; but beyond that, it could be impossible for viable candidates to emerge.
One remaining question is whom the City Council would appoint as temporary mayor if/when Thao does step down or is recalled. Let’s figure it out by a process of elimination. It wouldn’t be Carroll Fife. The other Council members don’t like her, and it would tear the city apart. It won’t be Rebecca Kaplan. Too polarizing, and she’s been around for way too long. It won’t be Dan Kalb, who’s running for State Senate. It could possibly be Noel Gallo, as a compromise placeholder, or Treva Reid, for the same reason. But only if they both promised to leave office by the time of the special election. Could it be either of the newcomers, Ramachandran or Jenkins? It seems unlikely, given their inexperience, but then 2024 is turning out to be the weirdest election year in recent history, so anything is possible. Meanwhile, Loren Taylor and LeRonne Armstrong are waiting in the wings.
I told you it was complicated!
Steve Heimoff