One of the most remarkable news stories of 2024 is that, nationally and locally, crime is down. Almost all major cities report crime reductions, including Oakland.
Nationally, “violent crime from January to March [2024] dropped 15.2% compared to the same period in 2023, while murders fell 26.4% and reported rapes decreased by 25.7%,” reports CNN. Assaults and robberies also fell by double digits.
The Brennan Center reported an “historic” drop in murders, “the sharpest on record” since 1996. The Major Cities [Police] Chiefs Association, studying 70 U.S. cities, similarly found major reductions in most of them in homicides, rapes, robberies and aggravated assaults.
Here in Oakland, murder is down “significantly” from previous years, reported Oaklandside, as are shootings, rapes and robberies. “Overall,” Oaklandside said, “violent crimes…are down 19% compared with this point (Oct. 31) last year.” KTVU-TV touted similar decreases in most crimes, while Gov. Newsom himself praised Oakland for a “33 percent drop in crime” including “burglary, robbery, car theft, larceny, arson, homicide, and assault.”
Days before she was recalled, Sheng Thao tried to take personal credit for the crime turnaround, which she claimed was a direct result of “a shift in our strategy under my administration." The lie did no good. Voters saw through Thao’s self-serving claim and fired her anyway.
Historians and social scientists will spend years explaining the turnaround. So far, several theories are emerging:
1. Policing has become tougher. Just look at San Francisco, where London Breed and D.A. Brooke Jenkins really cracked down on drug dealers and homeless encampments.
2. In some undefined way, America is returning to “normal” after the pandemic.
3. President Biden’s $15 billion economic stimulus bill of 2021, which included increased spending on public safety and stricter gun control measures.
4. It may be that strictly local efforts, by neighborhood groups, religious organizations and philanthropies, have contributed to the decline.
5. There’s a natural sine curve pattern to crime. It goes up, comes down, then goes up again.
Probably, it’s a combination of all of these. For us in Oakland, what does it mean? First, the crime reduction could be merely temporary. It could spike back up again, especially if the economy turns sour under a new Trump administration. Local events also are influenced by national events. If there’s widespread civil unrest in the next few years, we could see that spreading to Oakland.
But in the meantime, instead of catastrophizing, let’s breathe a little easier. Things aren’t as bad as they were: that’s the important thing. Of course, politically we’re in an interregnum in which there’s a bit of a power and policy vacuum while we wait and see who the next Mayor and District Attorney are. I personally would like to see Butch Ford as D.A. and Loren Taylor as Mayor. I don’t think Taylor is the perfect candidate; I think he’s woker than we think and more inclined to cater to the unions. But like the old saying goes, let’s not let the perfect be the enemy of the good.
Steve Heimoff